Even with the impending demise of the sport’s Collective Bargaining Agreement, Luck stands to command a hefty payday if he declares for the draft. And plenty of subpar teams will certainly jockey to draft him, hoping he can lead their franchise out of the doldrums.

But while there’s little downside for Luck, is it such a good idea for the teams who might want him?

The history of quarterbacks drafted first overall is spotty, at best. But teams have a love for the big arm that has grown stronger, even as the wisdom of the idea might have waned.

In 21 drafts from 1990 to 2010, teams have taken a quarterback first overall 12 times. That’s as many as were taken first overall in the 35 years prior. And over that time, the rate of busts has increased, as well. Prior to 1990, just two of those 12 picks could be considered unmitigated busts: Randy Duncan (1959) and Terry Baker (1963).

Duncan was drafted by the Green Bay Packers but chose the Canadian Football League instead. (No kidding: The money up north then was better, he once told the Daily Iowan). After two years, he switched to the American Football League’s Dallas Texans (soon to become the Kansas City Chiefs). But he played sparingly in one season and retired when the team traded for Len Dawson, who would go on to enjoy a Hall of Fame career.

Baker, the 1962 Heisman Trophy winner, is considered by some to be the first big-time Heisman bust. Perhaps he was ahead of his time as a dual-threat QB — good not just with his arm but also his running ability — but Baker had a mere 21 passing attempts through three NFL seasons for the Los Angeles Rams before leaving the sport entirely.

But other top QB picks from 1955 to 1989 include Hall of Famers and Super Bowl winners, like Troy Aikman (1989), John Elway (1983) and Terry Bradshaw (1970), along with two-time Super Bowl winner Jim Plunkett.

Besides Baker and Duncan, every top QB pick from that time period played at least eight seasons, in an era when salaries were low enough that teams could afford to jettison a player who wasn’t working out.

It wasn’t always pretty: George Shaw (1955) had a middling, journeyman career over eight seasons, and King Hill (1958) and Jack Concannon (1964) had similar experiences in 10-year careers. Four of the 12 — Shaw, Hill, Concannon and, oddly enough, Plunkett — never played in a Pro Bowl.

Even Vinny Testaverde, widely thought to be a bust after his abysmal early years with Tampa Bay — he once had an unfathomably low season-long passer rating of just 50.9 — eventually rebounded to lead the New York Jets to an AFC Championship game and played in two Pro Bowls over his remarkable 21-year pro career.

But from 1990 on, the record of top-pick QBs has grown ugly. Five of the 12 picks are unqualified busts, and that’s setting aside guys like Matt Stafford or Sam Bradford, on whom it’s too early to make the call.

Worse, the suckitude seems to be accelerating. Jeff George, the top overall pick in 1990, was renowned for his cannon arm, but it never made up for a cannonball head (a combination that some players still fight).

That experience might have sworn off teams from QBs for years. The next passer to go first overall was Peyton Manning in 1998. (The No. 2 pick that year, Ryan Leaf, turned out to have issues beyond pro football.)

Beyond George, here are the unqualified first-pick busts: Tim Couch (1999), David Carr (2002), Alex Smith (2005) and JaMarcus Russell (2007).

The two most recent picks are too new to fully judge yet. Last year’s top pick, Sam Bradford, looked cautiously promising throughout this season. Matt Stafford (2009) improved his stats before two shoulder separations, including a Type III, cost him most of his 2010 season. Team president Tom Lewand said this week that there was no reason to expect Stafford’s injury to hamper him during the upcoming 2011 season.

Eli Manning, Drew Bledsoe, Carson Palmer and Michael Vick have all been long-term starters and made at least one Pro Bowl, but only Manning has won a Super Bowl as a starter. The standout performer of the QBs of the last 20 years is easily Peyton Manning, but he’s the anomaly, not the rule.

Why do spectacular college quarterbacks — not just top overall picks but others like Akili Smith, Leaf or Joey Harrington — fade like a cheap T-shirt in the pros? Theories abound, such as the transition to the speed and athleticism of the pro game, the pressure to play high-priced talent perhaps before it’s ready to contribute, and the continuing paucity of real pro-style offenses in college football.

But some of those concerns would seem to bedevil a top pick at any position. What about non-QB top picks? Of nine in the last 20 years, the worst of the lot was Courtney Brown, with Steve Emtman and Ki-Jana Carter not far behind. But the other six have enjoyed long and generally productive careers.

But the recent history for QBs, at least, suggests that as much as Luck might seem like a slam dunk for the first pick, his prospects in the league are at best a coin flip, statistically speaking.

Luck, for one, seems to understand that. When pressed Monday night about his decision, he responded, “I think there are a lot of worse decisions you might have to make in life.

“I don’t mean to be rude, but I’d rather not address that subject anymore.”

Image: Paul Sakuma/AP

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Authors: Joe Lindsey

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